Elections Intelligence

California 25th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
Raul Ruiz Democratic · Incumbent
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
DEMOCRAT 97.4¢9.3¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Joe Males Republican · Challenger
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 13-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 97.4¢ today.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 97.4¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold. Prior result · Likely DD+12.6 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 97.4¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+12.6

Raul Ruiz (D)

56.3 — 43.7 · 2024 general election

def. Ian M. Weeks (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2.2 to 1
Raul Ruiz$2.09M
Joe Males$936.5K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.

BALLOT & DATES Top-two primary 06-02 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 Top-two field settled · both advancers on the November ballot COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄