FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 32-point Democratic gain in 2022, priced at 98.5¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 98.5¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Safe DD+27 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 27).Prior result · Safe DD+32.41 in 2022.MarketD 98.5¢PollsD+272022 resultD+32.4
MarketD 98.5¢PollsD+272022D+32.4
Market and polls both favor Moore.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total contributions, cycle to date through August 18, 2026.What these filings sayThe headline figure is I. Total Contributions (B + G), Cycle to Date, 2023–2026 as published by Maryland State Board of Elections, Candidacy and Campaign Finance Division; it is not identical to total receipts as the FEC defines them.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.