Maryland Governor
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Ralph Jaffe (D), Andy Ellis (G) and Cathy White (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 32-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 98¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 98¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Safe DD+27 — Zenith Research, Aug 12.Prior result · Safe DD+32.41 in 2022.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 98¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+27
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+32.41
Wes Moore (D)
64.53 — 32.12 · 2022 general election
def. Dan Cox (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
—
Wes Moore$6.52M
Dan Cox$30.3K
PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 06-07 · STATE FILING
Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.