DEFENDED SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes somewhat less Democratic, going from Harris +43.6 to Harris +34.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
John Garamendi (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialD+43.6→D+34.1Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+43.6) and the new (D+34.1). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 98.9¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Safe DD+48 in 2024.Market · Safe DD 98.9¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 57.04-to-1 in receipts.2024 resultD+48.0MarketD 98.9¢FundraisingD 57.04 to 1
MarketD 98.9¢2024D+48.0FundraisingD 57.04 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Garamendi.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+48.0
John Garamendi (D)
74.0% to 26.0% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes somewhat less Democratic, going from Harris +43.6 to Harris +34.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Rudy Recile (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.