Jim Costa
CA-21What the Signal reads
Costa is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Costa at 95.7¢ against Kirkland's 5.2¢, up 3.9¢ since August 3. Costa leads 3.9 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jim Costa by name.
25,904 traded · 21,726 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Costa v Kirkland
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 21st District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Jim Costa.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+3.8 → D+6.0
California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +3.8 to Harris +6 in the 2024 presidential vote).