Tano Tijerina
TX-28What the Signal reads
Likely D
Tijerina is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Tijerina at 12¢ against Cuellar's 89¢, down 5¢ since August 3. The polling average has Cuellar ahead by 5.3 points, and Cuellar leads 1.6 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Tijerina · Republican contract
12.0¢
▼ 5.0¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Tano Tijerina by name.
197,708 traded · 104,175 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Tijerina v Cuellar
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas 28th DistrictPolling average
D+5.3
Average of 2 pollsters, June 23 to July 30.
Prior result
D+5.6
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Henry Cuellar.
Fundraising
1.6 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.