Michigan Governor
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Mike Duggan (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
No market prices this seat. The most recent general-election poll puts the Democrat ahead by 5 points — a 11-point Democratic hold in 2022.
Lean D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Lean DD+10.6 in 2022.Polling · Lean DD+5 — Fabrizio, Aug 20.
Signal clarityLow — no market priceas of 2026-08-20
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
—
No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+5
Fabrizio ↗ A-
Aug 9 - 11, 26 · n=877 LV
D+5
R SPONSOR
TIPP ↗ A+
Aug 6 - 10, 26 · n=1,215 LV
D+16.4
INDEPENDENT
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+10.6
Gretchen Whitmer (D)
54.5 — 43.9 · 2022 general election
def. Tudor Dixon (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
—
Jocelyn Benson$6.40M
John James$800.8K
PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-19 · STATE FILING
Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.