FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: an 11-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 93.4¢ today.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 93.4¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+10.6 in 2022.Polling · Lean DD+7.9 (average of 14 pollsters, Oct 9).MarketD 93.4¢2022 resultD+10.6PollsD+7.9
MarketD 93.4¢PollsD+7.92022D+10.6
Market and polls both favor Benson.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Torchlight Strategies ↗B-Sep 15 to 19D+1.1Common Sense for America PAC sponsorD+1.1 · Common Sense for America PAC sponsor · counts as D+3.1 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of 14 pollsters in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 11
CNN/SSRS ↗BAug 31 to Sep 6 · n=843 LVD+9Independent