FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 26 points in 2022 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean DD 79¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Lean DD+7.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 3).Prior result · Safe RR+26.08 in 2022.MarketD 79¢PollsD+7.32022 resultR+26.1
MarketD 79¢PollsD+7.32022R+26.1
Market and polls both favor Kreiss-Tomkins.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 12 points toward the Republican over 22 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above