Alaska Governor
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) and Dave Bronson (R).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 26-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 58¢ today.
Toss-up
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Toss-upD+1.8 — Alaska Suvey Research, Jul 9.Market · Toss-upR 58¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+26.08 in 2022.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 7¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 58¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+1.8
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+26.08
Mike Dunleavy / Nancy Dahlstrom (R)
50.29 — 24.21 · 2022 general election
def. Les Gara / Jessica Cook (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
—
Tom Begich$117.2K
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins$309.9K
Dave Bronson$34.8K
Bernadette Wilson$0
PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 08-08 · STATE FILING
Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.