DEFENDED SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. It goes from an essentially even split to Harris +3.3 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Emilia Strong Sykes (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.
PresidentialEven→D+3.3Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (Even) and the new (D+3.3). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 96.9¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 96.9¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 24.68-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+2.21 in 2024.MarketD 96.9¢FundraisingD 24.68 to 12024 resultD+2.2
MarketD 96.9¢2024D+2.2FundraisingD 24.68 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Sykes.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+2.2
Emilia Strong Sykes (D)
51.1% to 48.9% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. It goes from an essentially even split to Harris +3.3 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Kevin Coughlin (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.