FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 19-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 97¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 97¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Safe DD+22.3 (average of 2 pollsters, Aug 24).Prior result · Likely DD+19.06 in 2022.MarketD 97¢PollsD+22.32022 resultD+19.1
MarketD 97¢PollsD+22.32022D+19.1
Market and polls both favor Foulkes.
Polling moved 12 points toward the Democrat over 32 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Opinion Diag. ↗Apr 13 to 16 · n=802 LVD+17Candidate sponsorD+17 · Candidate sponsor · counts as D+17 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+19.1
Dan McKee (D)
57.9% to 38.9% · 2022 general election
def. Ashley Kalus (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.