Rhode Island Governor — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP BOTH NOMINEES DETERMINED SEPTEMBER 9

DEM PRIMARY · SEP 9 KXGOVRINOMD-26 ↗

Decides which Democrat appears on the November ballot.

EVEN Helena Foulkes 99¢ Dan McKee 3¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM · 3 others priced below 1¢

REP PRIMARY · SEP 9 KXGOVRINOMR-26 ↗

Decides which Republican appears on the November ballot.

EP AG EVEN Elaine Pelino 87¢ Aaron Guckian 14¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM · 1 other priced below 3¢

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION GOVPARTYRI-26 ↗

Democratic nominee Determined September 9

KALSHI PARTY MARKET CHECKED 08/27

DEMOCRAT 96¢

Republican nominee Determined September 9

FTP RACE SIGNAL

Nothing live is reporting on this seat. Its last general election was a 19-point Democratic hold in 2022.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Likely DD+19.06 in 2022.

Signal clarityLow — no market price, no pollingas of 2026-08-26

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

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No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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Emerson College ↗ A+ Aug 21 - 22, 26 · n=528 LV · D PRIMARY D+15 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+19.06

McKee, Daniel (D)

57.92 — 38.86 · 2022 general election

def. Kalus, Ashley (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Democratic nominee determined Sep 9, 2026.

Republican nominee determined Sep 9, 2026.

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 08-11 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.