Elections Intelligence

Washington 9th District

DEFENDED SEAT
LIKELY D
Adam Smith Democratic · Incumbent
KALSHI PERSON MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
SMITH 98¢4.7¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Doug Basler Republican · Challenger
FTP RACE SIGNAL

Nothing live is reporting on this seat. Its last general election was a 33-point Democratic hold in 2024.

Likely D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+33 in 2024.
Signal clarityLow — no market price, no pollingas of 2026-08-26
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+33

Adam Smith (D)

65.44 — 32.44 · 2024 general election

def. Melissa Chaudhry (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
Adam Smith$1.88M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Top-two primary 08-04 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 Top-two field settled · both advancers on the November ballot COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄