FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 2 points in 2022 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 57¢.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Toss-upD 57¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upR+1 (Global Strategy Group (adjusted), Sep 16).Prior result · Toss-upR+1.6 in 2022.MarketD 57¢PollsR+12022 resultR+1.6
MarketD 57¢PollsR+12022R+1.6
Market favors Mann, but polls favor Kobach.
The market moved 6¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+1
Global Strategy Group ↗Sep 13 to Sep 16 · n=800 LVD+1Democratic Attorneys General Association sponsorD+1 · Democratic Attorneys General Association sponsor · counts as R+1 at half weight
The latest poll on file. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+1.6
Kris W. Kobach (R)
50.8% to 49.2% · 2022 general election
def. Chris Mann (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.