Todd Achilles · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Achilles is the independent challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Achilles at 6¢ against Risch's 94.4¢, up 3¢ since July 31. The polling average has Risch ahead by 1.9 points, and Risch leads 4.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Achilles · independent contract

6.0¢

▲ 3.0¢since July 31

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 10¢ · low 3¢Oct 12

Todd Achillesindependent

6.0¢

James E. RischRepublican · incumbent

94.4¢

Democratic lineNo candidate is named on this contract.

0.6¢

353,262 traded · 262,640 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Achilles v Risch

Metric by metric

Achilles

Risch

6.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

94.4¢

$692.2K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$3.36M

$194.2K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$3.54M

24%

Latest pollPeak Insights, Risch sponsor · Sep 30

49%

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Senatorsince 2009

The 2026 race

Idaho U.S. Senate

Polling average

Risch +1.9

Average of 3 pollsters, August 7 to September 30.

Prior result

R+29.4

2020 general election, won by James E. Risch.

Fundraising

4.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.