DEFENDED SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedTennessee redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 7003, signed on May 7, 2026. The plan splits Shelby County, home to Memphis, among the 5th, 8th and 9th districts. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +41.1 to Trump +20.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
David Kustoff (R) has held this seat since 2017 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
PresidentialR+41.1→R+20.1Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+41.1) and the new (R+20.1). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 96¢ Republican.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 53.83-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 96¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+46.75 in 2024.FundraisingR 53.83 to 1MarketR 96¢2024 resultR+46.8
MarketR 96¢2024R+46.8FundraisingR 53.83 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Kustoff.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+46.8
David Kustoff (R)
72.3% to 25.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesTennessee redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 7003, signed on May 7, 2026. The plan splits Shelby County, home to Memphis, among the 5th, 8th and 9th districts. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +41.1 to Trump +20.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Sarah Freeman (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.