Elections Intelligence

Tennessee 8th District

DEFENDED SEAT
LIKELY R
Heidi Kuhn Democratic · Challenger
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
9.5¢REPUBLICAN 94¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
David Kustoff Republican · Incumbent
Also on the ballot: Adam D. Austill (I), Wendell "Wells" Blankenship (I), Antonio Futch (I), Pamela Jeanine "P." Moses (I), Horace Taylor (I) and Henry J. Ward, III (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 47-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 94¢ today.

Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Likely RR 94¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold. Prior result · Safe RR+46.75 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 94¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+46.75

David Kustoff (R)

72.34 — 25.59 · 2024 general election

def. Sarah Freeman (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
David Kustoff$2.23M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-17 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 08-06 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 R settled · D settled · I no primary COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄