Indiana 4th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: David Bokash (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 34-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 95.4¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 17.58-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 95.4¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+33.9 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 5¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 95.4¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+33.9
James R. Baird (R)
64.83 — 30.93 · 2024 general election
def. Derrick Holder (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 17.58 to 1
Drew Cox$20.4K
James R. Baird$358.3K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.