Marie Gluesenkamp Perez · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Lean D

Perez is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Perez at 91.1¢ against Braun's 9.8¢, up 7.1¢ since August 3. The polling average has Braun ahead by 1.8 points, and Perez leads 3.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Perez · Democratic contract

91.1¢

▲ 7.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 91.1¢ · low 84¢Oct 12

Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDemocratic · incumbent

91.1¢

John BraunRepublican

9.8¢

177,636 traded · 137,217 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Perez v Braun

Metric by metric

Perez

Braun

91.1¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

9.8¢

$6.29M

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$1.99M

$2.06M

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$1.06M

47%

Latest pollDHM Research, OPB sponsor · Sep 27

48%

U.S. Representativesince 2023

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Washington 3rd District

Polling average

R+1.8

Average of 3 pollsters, April 29 to September 27.

Prior result

D+3.9

2024 general election, won by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

Fundraising

3.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.