Maine 2nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Democratic by less than a point in 2024 is now a coin flip, the Republican narrowly ahead at 58¢.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upD+1 — Tulchin Research, Jul 20.Prior result · Toss-upD+0.7 in 2024.Market · Toss-upR 58¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 9¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 7 points toward the Republican over 48 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 58¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+1

Tulchin Research ↗ B- Jul 11 - 16 · n=600 LV D+1 D SPONSOR

NRCC Co/efficient ↗ B Apr 26 - 28 · n=800 RV R+10 R SPONSOR

UNH ↗ C Feb 12 - 16 · n=522 LV R+1 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+0.7

Jared Golden (D)

50.35 — 49.65 · 2024 general election

def. Austin Theriault (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

2.1 to 1

Matthew Dunlap$1.21M

Paul LePage$2.56M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.