FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Democratic by less than a point in 2024 is now priced for the Republican.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upD+2.8 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 30).Prior result · Toss-upD+0.7 in 2024.Market · Lean RR 68¢: traders' price for a Republican win, a flip from Democratic.PollsD+2.82024 resultD+0.7MarketR 68¢
MarketR 68¢PollsD+2.82024D+0.7
Market favors LePage, but polls favor Dunlap.
Polling moved 3 points toward the Democrat over 48 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Impact Research ↗BSep 8 to 12 · n=500 LVEVENHouse Majority PAC sponsorEVEN · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of 3 pollsters in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 2
DCCC ↗B-Aug 11 to 13 · n=621 LVR+1D sponsorR+1 · D sponsor · counts as R+3 at half weight
Tulchin Research ↗B-Jul 11 to 16 · n=600 LVD+1Dunlap sponsorD+1 · Dunlap sponsor · counts as R+1 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+0.7
Jared Golden (D)
50.4% to 49.6% · 2024 general election
def. Austin Theriault (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; LePage leads 2.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.