Nick LaLota · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Likely R

LaLota is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has LaLota at 87¢ against Gallant's 14¢, up 11¢ since August 3. The polling average has LaLota ahead by 5 points, and LaLota leads 5.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

LaLota · Republican contract

87.0¢

▲ 11.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Nick LaLota by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 87¢ · low 72¢Oct 12

Nick LaLotaRepublican · incumbent

87.0¢

Christopher GallantDemocratic

14.0¢

195,176 traded · 145,746 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

LaLota v Gallant

Metric by metric

LaLota

Gallant

87.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

14.0¢

$3.80M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$647.6K

$3.33M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$172.2K

41%

Latest pollPublic Policy Polling (D), House Majority PAC sponsor · Dec 11

38%

U.S. Representativesince 2023

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

New York 1st District

Latest poll

R+5

Public Policy Polling (D), House Majority PAC sponsor, December 11.

Prior result

R+10.4

2024 general election, won by Nick LaLota.

Fundraising

5.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.