Utah 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 31 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 17.07-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Safe RR+31.06 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+31.06

Blake D. Moore (R)

63.13 — 32.06 · 2024 general election

def. Bill Campbell (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 17.07 to 1

Ben McAdams$2.26M

Riley Owen$132.5K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.