OPEN SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedA Utah judge struck down the Legislature's map for violating Proposition 4, the anti-gerrymandering measure voters passed, and on Nov. 10, 2025, picked a map submitted by the plaintiffs for 2026. It unites Salt Lake County communities that had been split among four districts. The new lines flip the district, going from Trump +20 to Harris +23.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Blake D. Moore (R) has held this seat since 2021 and is not running; the district was redrawn in November 2025.
PresidentialR+20→D+23.6Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+20) and the new (D+23.6). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in November 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 99¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Safe DD+41.5 (Lighthoust Research, Sep 10).Market · Safe DD 99¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Fundraising · Lean DD 17.07-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Safe RR+31.06 in 2024.PollsD+41.5MarketD 99¢FundraisingD 17.07 to 12024 resultR+31.1
MarketD 99¢PollsD+41.52024R+31.1FundraisingD 17.07 to 1
Market and polls both favor McAdams.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+31.1
Blake D. Moore (R)
63.1% to 32.1% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesA Utah judge struck down the Legislature's map for violating Proposition 4, the anti-gerrymandering measure voters passed, and on Nov. 10, 2025, picked a map submitted by the plaintiffs for 2026. It unites Salt Lake County communities that had been split among four districts. The new lines flip the district, going from Trump +20 to Harris +23.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Bill Campbell (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.