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J. French Hill

U.S. House H architectural icon OfficeHouse Republican Likely to win
INCUMBENT ON THE 2026 BALLOT LIKELY R KALSHI · 86¢ · CHECKED 1:29 AM ET
WHAT THE SIGNAL READS ON HILL
THE SEAT THEY ARE IN

Likely R

J. French Hill is the sitting U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 2nd district and is defending it, a seat the band rates Likely R. The market prices their contract at 86.0¢ against Jones' 16.0¢, down 2.0¢ across 25 observation days; the one public poll has them 3 points behind; and they have raised 3.8 dollars for every one of Jones'.

MARKET · PARTY WINNER Kalshi ↗
J. French Hill · Republican · KXHOUSERACE-AR02-26-R

86.0¢

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on J. French Hill by name.

▼ 2.0¢

since Aug 3

2026-08-0325 observation days · high 90.3¢ · low 84.0¢2026-09-21
J. French Hill Republican · incumbent
86.0¢

Settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on this candidate by name.

Chris Jones Democratic
16.0¢

Settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on this candidate by name.

DEPTH ON THIS BOOK 9,271 traded · 7,047 open

Sides may not sum to 100. Prices are the yes ask. checked 1:29 AM ET

HILL AGAINST JONES · METRIC BY METRIC
Hill
Jones
MARKETchecked 1:29 AM ET

86.0¢

16.0¢

RAISED THIS CYCLEFederal Election Commission, through June 30, 2026

$4.42M

3.8:1 against Chris Jones

$1.17M

WHAT THEY HOLD NOW

U.S. Representative

Arkansas's 2nd district · since 2025 · defending it

Holds no office

Challenger

POLL STANDING2040 Strat. Group · May 8 · n=660 LV

43%

3 points behind

One public poll, and it is the only one

46%

THE 2026 RACE · ARKANSAS 2ND DISTRICT
LATEST POLL · STALE · 136 DAYSD+32040 Strat. Group ↗ 05-08 · n=660 · 136 days old
PRIOR MARGIN+17.872024 general election · verified against official results
STANDING · THIS SEAT
+17.872024 general election margin — verified against official results
3.8:1fundraising ratio v Jones · FEC period 06-30
FUNDRAISING
$4.42Mraised
$2.97Mcash on hand
through June 30, 2026 · checked Aug 31
· Jones: $1.17M / $191.4K CoH
COMPARE V JONES ⇄