Missouri 5th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Randall Langkraehr (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
A seat that went Democratic by 24 points in 2024 is now priced for the Republican.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Likely DD+23.78 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 86¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 86¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+23.78
Emanuel Cleaver (D)
60.22 — 36.44 · 2024 general election
def. Sean E. Smith (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
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PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.