VACANT SEATLean RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +15.5 to Trump +14.8 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Tony Gonzales (R) held this seat until April 2026.
PresidentialR+15.5→R+14.8Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+15.5) and the new (R+14.8). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in September 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 66¢ Republican.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean RR 66¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Polling · Lean RR+5.3 (average of 2 pollsters, Jul 28).Prior result · Likely RR+24.59 in 2024.MarketR 66¢PollsR+5.32024 resultR+24.6
MarketR 66¢PollsR+5.32024R+24.6
Market and polls both favor Herrera.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Public Policy Polling (D) ↗March 10 to 11, 2026 · n=521 votersR+2House Majority PAC sponsorR+2 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+4 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+24.6
Tony Gonzales (R)
62.3% to 37.7% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +15.5 to Trump +14.8 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Santos Limon (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Herrera leads 3.9 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.