Texas 23rd District
VACANT SEAT
Also on the ballot: Patti Hale Ashe (I) and Veronica Williams (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 25-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 70¢ today.
Lean R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Toss-upR+2 — PPP, Mar 19.Market · Lean RR 70¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+24.59 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 70¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+2
PPP ↗ B
Mar 10 - 11 · n=521 LV
R+2
D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+24.59
Tony Gonzales (R)
62.3 — 37.7 · 2024 general election
def. S. Limon (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
4 to 1
Katy Padilla Stout$484.9K
Brandon Herrera$1.94M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.