Minnesota Attorney General — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market and the latest general-election poll carry this seat — Minnesota has no verified prior result on file.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 78¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Lean DD+8 — KSTP/SurveyUSA, Aug 6.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 10¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 78¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+8

KSTP/SurveyUSA ↗ July 29 – August 4, 2026 · n=1,435 LV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP D+8 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

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No verified prior result

The last general election in this seat has not been imported from an official state canvass, so the signal has no baseline.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Keith Ellison$734.0K

Doug Wardlow$4.5K

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-20 · STATE FILING

Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.