FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: decided by less than a point in 2022, priced at 66¢ today.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean DD 66¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+0.84 in 2022.Polling · Toss-upR+2 (SurveyUSA, Sep 14).MarketD 66¢2022 resultD+0.8PollsR+2
MarketD 66¢PollsR+22022D+0.8
Market favors Ellison, but polls favor Schutz.
The market moved 10¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 10 points toward the Republican over 41 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above