DEFENDED SEATLikely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +22.3 to Trump +16.2 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Mike Haridopolos (R) has held this seat since 2025 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
PresidentialR+22.3→R+16.2Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+22.3) and the new (R+16.2). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 94.4¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+9.7 (average of 2 pollsters, Jul 29).Market · Likely RR 94.4¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+24.48 in 2024.PollsR+9.7MarketR 94.4¢2024 resultR+24.5
MarketR 94.4¢PollsR+9.72024R+24.5
Market and polls both favor Haridopolos.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
PPP ↗BJul 17 to 18 · n=633 RVR+9Sponsor unconfirmed (released by the Jenkins campaign)R+9 · Sponsor unconfirmed (released by the Jenkins campaign) · counts as R+11 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+24.5
Mike Haridopolos (R)
62.2% to 37.8% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +22.3 to Trump +16.2 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Sandy Kennedy (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 29, 2026; Haridopolos leads 2.5 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.