Florida 8th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 24-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 97.9¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Lean RR+9 — Inquire, Jul 31.Prior result · Likely RR+24.48 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 97.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 97.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+9

Inquire ↗ Jul 27 - 29 · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP R+9 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+24.48

Mike Haridopolos (R)

62.24 — 37.76 · 2024 general election

def. Sandy Kennedy (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

2.5 to 1

Jennifer Jenkins$725.7K

Mike Haridopolos$1.82M

PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.