Illinois 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 32-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 94.7¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Safe DD+31.7 in 2024.Market · Likely DD 94.7¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 6.61-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 94.7¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+31.7

Jonathan Jackson (D)

65.8 — 34.1 · 2024 general election

def. Marcus Lewis (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 6.61 to 1

Jonathan L. Jackson$418.3K

Christian Maxwell$63.3K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.