North Carolina 10th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Steven Feldman (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 19-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 94.7¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 12.88-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Likely RR+15 — Ragnar, Apr 29.Prior result · Likely RR+19.28 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 94.7¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 94.7¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+15
Ragnar ↗ B
Mar 10 - 12 · n=400 LV
R+15
R SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+19.28
Pat Harrigan (R)
57.49 — 38.21 · 2024 general election
def. Ralph R. Scott, Jr. (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 12.88 to 1
Ashley Bell$84.0K
Pat Harrigan$1.08M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.