David G. Valadao
CA-22What the Signal reads
Valadao is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Valadao at 12¢ against Villegas's 91.9¢, down 8¢ since July 31. The polling average has Villegas ahead by 2 points, and Valadao leads 1.8 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on David G. Valadao by name.
142,486 traded · 89,356 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Valadao v Villegas
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 22nd DistrictTulchin Research, House Majority PAC sponsor, June 21.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by David G. Valadao.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+5.8 → R+1.9
California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It's still the Bakersfield-area district, but its Central Valley electorate changes. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +5.8 to Trump +1.9 in the 2024 presidential vote.