Elections Intelligence

Nevada 2nd District

DEFENDED SEAT
LEAN R
Teresa F. Benitez-Thompson Democratic · Nominee
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
24¢REPUBLICAN 82¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
David Flippo Republican · Nominee
Also on the ballot: Mark E. Amodei (R).
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 19-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 82¢ today.

Lean R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Toss-upD+2 — Wedgewood Polls, Jul 12. Fundraising · Lean RR 8.85-to-1 in receipts. Market · Likely RR 82¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold. Prior result · Likely RR+18.98 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 82¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+2
Wedgewood Polls ↗ July 9–12, 2026 · n=350 LV D+2 INDEPENDENT
PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+18.98

Mark E. Amodei (R)

55.04 — 36.05 · 2024 general election

def. Greg Kidd (NO POLITICAL PARTY). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 8.85 to 1
Teresa F. Benitez-Thompson$257.1K
David Flippo$2.28M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 06-09 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 R settled · D settled COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄