FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market and the evidence beside it agree on this seat, priced at 73¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+0.5 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 3).Fundraising · Lean RR 8.68-to-1 in receipts.Market · Lean RR 73¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.PollsR+0.5FundraisingR 8.68 to 1MarketR 73¢
MarketR 73¢PollsR+0.5FundraisingR 8.68 to 1
Market and polls both favor Flippo.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
Amodei +19.0
Amodei won 55.0% to 36.0% over Greg Kidd (no party) (2024)
2024 general election
Result verified against retrieved official results.