Ohio 9th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Matthew Althaus (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — decided by less than a point in 2024, priced at 72¢ today.
Lean D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Lean DD 72¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+0.63 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upR+4 — McLaughlin/NRCC, May 15.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 7¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 72¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+4
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+0.63
Marcy Kaptur (D)
48.27 — 47.63 · 2024 general election
def. Derek Merrin (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2.9 to 1
Marcy Kaptur$4.30M
Derek Merrin$1.51M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.