Ohio 9th District

DEFENDED SEATLean DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. The Toledo-based district keeps its core, but the counties attached to it change. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +6.7 to Trump +10.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

Marcy Kaptur (D) has held this seat since 1983 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.

PresidentialR+6.7→R+10.6Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+6.7) and the new (R+10.6). Same ballots, new map.

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 71¢ Democratic.

Lean D

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Market · Lean DD 71¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+0.63 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upR+2 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 23).

Market favors Kaptur, but polls favor Merrin.

As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 71¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

R+2

DCCC ↗ B- Sep 22 to 23 · n=481 LV EVEN D sponsor EVEN · D sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight

McLaughlin & Associates (R) ↗ April 18 to 20, 2026 · n=400 LV R+4 NRCC sponsor R+4 · NRCC sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight

Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

D+0.6

Marcy Kaptur (D)

48.3% to 47.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. The Toledo-based district keeps its core, but the counties attached to it change. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +6.7 to Trump +10.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

def. Derek Merrin (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

2.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jun 30

Marcy Kaptur$4.30M ↗$3.49M cash

Derek Merrin$1.49M ↗$531.2K cash

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Kaptur leads 2.8 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.