Tennessee 7th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 21-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 94.9¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upD+2.4 — Emerson College, Nov 26.Prior result · Likely RR+21.46 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 94.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

Polling moved 6 points toward the Democrat over 29 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 94.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+2.4

Emerson College ↗ A+ Nov 22 - 24, 25 · n=600 LV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP D+2.4 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+21.46

Mark E. Green (R)

59.5 — 38.05 · 2024 general election

def. Megan Barry (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Matt Van Epps$2.30M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-17 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.