Virginia 2nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 4 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 81¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upR+3.84 in 2024.

Signal clarityLow — no pollingas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 81¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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Tulchin Research ↗ B- Jul 9 - 13 · n=700 LV EVEN D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+3.84

Jennifer A. Kiggans (R)

50.74 — 46.9 · 2024 general election

def. Missy Cotter Smasal (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.3 to 1

Elaine Luria$4.66M

Jennifer A. Kiggans$5.95M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.