Patrick Ryan
NY-18What the Signal reads
Likely D
Ryan is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Ryan at 96.5¢ against Auringer's 5.9¢, up 1.7¢ since August 3. The polling average has Ryan ahead by 15.3 points, and Ryan leads 52.6 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Ryan · Democratic contract
96.5¢
▲ 1.7¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Patrick Ryan by name.
17,410 traded · 4,056 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Ryan v Auringer
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
New York 18th DistrictPolling average
D+15.3
Average of 2 pollsters, October 30 to July 26.
Prior result
D+14.3
2024 general election, won by Patrick Ryan.
Fundraising
52.6 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.