Mike Carey
OH-15What the Signal reads
Carey is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Carey at 77¢ against Leonard's 25¢, up 1¢ since August 3. The polling average has Carey ahead by 1 point, and Carey leads 5.4 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Mike Carey by name.
16,879 traded · 9,606 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Carey v Leonard
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Ohio 15th DistrictHart Research, D sponsor, September 24.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Mike Carey.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+9.2 → R+10.0
Ohio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +9.2 to Trump +10 in the 2024 presidential vote).