J.D. Ford · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Ford is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Ford at 19¢ against Spartz's 83¢, up 5¢ since August 3. The polling average has Spartz ahead by 4 points, and Spartz leads 2.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Ford · Democratic contract

19.0¢

▲ 5.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on J.D. Ford by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 23¢ · low 14¢Oct 12

J.D. FordDemocratic

19.0¢

Victoria SpartzRepublican · incumbent

83.0¢

27,047 traded · 19,762 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Ford v Spartz

Metric by metric

Ford

Spartz

19.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

83.0¢

$582.1K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.33M

$314.7K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$230.0K

46%

Latest pollImpact Research, Ford sponsor · Jul 20

48%

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2021

The 2026 race

Indiana 5th District

Latest poll

R+4

Impact Research, Ford sponsor, July 20.

Prior result

R+18.6

2024 general election, won by Victoria Spartz.

Fundraising

2.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.