FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 33-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 97.8¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+7 (VoteNexus (adjusted), Oct 7).Fundraising · Lean RR 13.59-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Safe RR+32.61 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 97.8¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.PollsR+7FundraisingR 13.59 to 12024 resultR+32.6MarketR 97.8¢
MarketR 97.8¢PollsR+72024R+32.6FundraisingR 13.59 to 1
Market and polls both favor Jack.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above