Texas 2nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 31-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 94.6¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely RR 94.6¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+31.32 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 94.6¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+31.32

Dan Crenshaw (R)

65.66 — 34.34 · 2024 general election

def. Peter Filler (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

3.3 to 1

Shaun Finnie$2.73M

Steve Toth$824.5K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.