Pete Ricketts (R) was appointed in January 2023, won the November 2024 special election and is running for re-election. Before that: Ben Sasse (R). The November field carries no Democratic candidate. Independent Dan Osborn is the principal challenger.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 38-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 74¢ today.
Lean R
Safe ILikely ILean IToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upRicketts +1 (average of 4 pollsters Ricketts +1, Oct 3).Market · Lean RR 74¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+38.31 in 2020.PollsRicketts +1MarketR 74¢2020 resultR+38.3
MarketR 74¢PollsRicketts +12020R+38.3
Market and polls both favor Ricketts.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Ricketts leads 1.9 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.