Arkansas 1st District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Jason Gaines (I) and Steve G. Parsons (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 49-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 98.8¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 14.49-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 98.8¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+48.88 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 98.8¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+48.88
Eric A. “Rick” Crawford (R)
72.88 — 24 · 2024 general election
def. Rodney Govens (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 14.49 to 1
Terri Yarbrough Green$65.1K
Rick Crawford$944.3K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.