Elections Intelligence

New York 7th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
THE NOVEMBER FIELD
Democratic — SETTLED
Claire Valdez Democratic · Nominee
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 56-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.9¢ today.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+56.07 in 2024. Market · Safe DD 99.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 99.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+56.07

Nydia M. Velázquez (D)

77.91 — 21.84 · 2024 general election

def. Bill Kregler (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
Claire Valdez$1.69M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 06-23 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 D settled