New Jersey 12th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Andres Jinete (G) and Winston Jordan (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 23-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 96¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 96¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+22.5 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 19.31-to-1 in receipts.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 96¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+22.5
Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)
61.2 — 38.7 · 2024 general election
def. Darius Mayfield (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 19.31 to 1
Adam Hamawy$1.53M
Gregg Mele$79.4K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.