FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 29-point Democratic gain in 2022, priced at 94.9¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Safe DD+29.1 in 2022.Market · Likely DD 94.9¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+19.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 22).2022 resultD+29.1MarketD 94.9¢PollsD+19.3
MarketD 94.9¢PollsD+19.32022D+29.1
Market and polls both favor Healey.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Closing balance at September 30, 2026, not money raised; Healey leads 4.1 to 1 on cash, which takes no place on the spectrum.What these filings sayThis filing reports closing cash on hand; receipts and expenditures are not on file for this period.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.