Massachusetts Governor — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP PRIMARY SEP 01 DECIDES THE REPUBLICAN SIDE

PRIMARY · SEP 01 · REPUBLICAN KXGOVMANOMR-26 ↗

Decides which Republican appears on the November ballot.

MM BS EVEN Michael Minogue 98¢ Brian Shortsleeve 6¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION GOVPARTYMA-26 ↗

Maura Healey holds the Democratic nomination. The party market prices the seat, not the people — it carries whichever Republican wins on September 1, 2026.

DEMOCRAT 96¢

KALSHI PARTY MARKET · CHECKED 08/27Maura HealeyDemocratic · NomineeRepublican nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 1, 2026

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 29-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 96¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Safe DD+29.1 in 2022.Market · Safe DD 96¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 96¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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YouGov ↗ B+ Aug 5 - 12 · n=800 RV · R PRIMARY R+27 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+29.1

Maura Healey (D)

63.7 — 34.6 · 2022 general election

def. Geoff Diehl (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Maura Healey$3.05M

Republican nominee determined Sep 1, 2026.

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-31 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.