Maryland 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 22-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 90.5¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely RR 90.5¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+22.04 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 90.5¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+22.04

Andy Harris (R)

59.41 — 37.37 · 2024 general election

def. Blane Miller, III (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

3.3 to 1

Dan Schwartz$695.2K

Andy Harris$2.32M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.