Maria Elvira Salazar
FL-27What the Signal reads
Salazar is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Toss-up. The market has Salazar at 64¢ against Rodriguez's 36¢, down 17¢ since August 3. The polling average has Salazar ahead by 2.5 points, and Salazar leads 3 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Maria Elvira Salazar by name.
96,019 traded · 64,935 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Salazar v Rodriguez
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Florida 27th DistrictAverage of 2 pollsters, August 30 to September 13.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Maria Elvira Salazar.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+14.7 → R+14.6
Florida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +14.7 to Trump +14.6 in the 2024 presidential vote).