FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 13-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 54¢ today.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+1 (GBAO (adjusted), Sep 16).Market · Toss-upR 54¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+12.6 in 2024.PollsR+1MarketR 54¢2024 resultR+12.6
MarketR 54¢PollsR+12024R+12.6
Market and polls both favor Huizenga.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 15, 2026; Huizenga leads 1.5 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.