Michigan 4th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 13-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 57¢ today.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upD+3 — GBAO, Jun 9.Market · Toss-upR 57¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+12.6 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 14¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 9 points toward the Democrat over 41 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 57¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+3

GBAO ↗ B May 28 - Jun 1 · n=500 LV D+3 D SPONSOR

Ragnar ↗ B Mar 12 - 14 · n=400 LV R+6 R SPONSOR

PPP ↗ B Nov 20 - 21, 25 · n=559 RV R+2 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+12.6

Bill Huizenga (R)

55.4 — 42.8 · 2024 general election

def. Jessica Swartz (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

—

Bill Huizenga$4.09M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.