South Carolina U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 10-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 88¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean DD 31.16-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Toss-upD+0 — Impact Research, Aug 26.Prior result · Lean RR+10.27 in 2020.Market · Likely RR 88¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityLow — finance and market disagreeas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 3¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 88¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+0

Impact Research ↗ B Aug 18 - 24 · n=700 LV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP EVEN D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+10.27

Graham, Lindsey (R)

54.44 — 44.17 · 2020 general election

def. Harrison, Jaime (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 31.16 to 1

Annie Andrews$10.80M

Darline Graham$346.8K

PULLED 08-25 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.