FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 10-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 86¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean DD 31.16-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Toss-upR+2 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 8).Prior result · Lean RR+10.27 in 2020.Market · Likely RR 86¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.FundraisingD 31.16 to 1PollsR+22020 resultR+10.3MarketR 86¢
MarketR 86¢PollsR+22020R+10.3FundraisingD 31.16 to 1
Market and polls both favor Graham.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above