Dan Sullivan
AKWhat the Signal reads
Toss-up
Sullivan is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Toss-up. The market has Sullivan at 27¢ against Peltola's 74¢, down 19¢ since July 31. The polling average has Peltola ahead by 1.6 points, and Peltola leads 2 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Sullivan · Republican contract
27.0¢
▼ 19.0¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Dan Sullivan by name.
2,687,744 traded · 1,424,841 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Sullivan v Peltola
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Alaska U.S. SenatePolling average
D+1.6
Average of 5 pollsters, September 17 to October 10.
Prior result
R+12.8
2020 general election, won by Dan Sullivan.
Fundraising
2 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.