DEFENDED SEATLean RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +9.2 to Trump +10 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Mike Carey (R) has held this seat since November 2021, after a special election, and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.
PresidentialR+9.2→R+10Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+9.2) and the new (R+10). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 77¢ Republican.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+1 (Hart Research (adjusted), Sep 24).Fundraising · Lean RR 5.44-to-1 in receipts.Market · Lean RR 77¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+12.92 in 2024.PollsR+1FundraisingR 5.44 to 1MarketR 77¢2024 resultR+12.9
MarketR 77¢PollsR+12024R+12.9FundraisingR 5.44 to 1
Market and polls both favor Carey.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 5 points toward the Democrat over 46 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+1
Hart Research ↗A-Sep 22 to 24 · n=500 LVD+1D sponsorD+1 · D sponsor · counts as R+1 at half weight
The latest poll on file. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 2
Hart Research ↗A-Aug 6 to 9 · n=401 LVR+4D sponsorR+4 · D sponsor · counts as R+6 at half weight
Hart Research ↗A-Jun 23 to 25 · n=550 LVR+5D sponsorR+5 · D sponsor · counts as R+7 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+12.9
Mike Carey (R)
56.5% to 43.5% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +9.2 to Trump +10 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Adam C. Miller (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.