Ohio 15th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 13-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 85¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upR+4 — Hart Research, Aug 15.Fundraising · Lean RR 5.44-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Likely RR+12.92 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 85¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 85¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+4

Hart Research ↗ A- Aug 6 - 9 · n=401 LV R+4 D SPONSOR

Hart Research ↗ A- Jun 23 - 25 · n=550 LV R+5 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+12.92

Mike Carey (R)

56.46 — 43.54 · 2024 general election

def. Adam Miller (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 5.44 to 1

Don Leonard$606.7K

Mike Carey$3.30M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.