Mississippi 4th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: D. Ryan Grover (D) and Carl Boyanton (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 48-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 99.9¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 34.09-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 99.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+47.9 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 99.9¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+47.9
Mike Ezell (R)
73.95 — 26.05 · 2024 general election
def. Craig Elliot Raybon (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 34.09 to 1
Jeffrey Hulum III$29.0K
Mike Ezell$990.1K
PULLED 08-22 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.