FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 27-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 92.7¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 3173.54-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 92.7¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Polling · Safe RR+20 (Targoz, Aug 26).Prior result · Safe RR+27.04 in 2020.FundraisingR 3173.54 to 1MarketR 92.7¢PollsR+202020 resultR+27.0
MarketR 92.7¢PollsR+202020R+27.0FundraisingR 3173.54 to 1
Market and polls both favor Hagerty.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above