Tennessee U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

Also on the ballot: Tharon Chandler (I), Andrew Gerena (I), Jeremy Dean Hearn (I), Robert Jones (I), James William Macon III (I), Yoshi D. Matthews (I), David Sutman, Jr. (I) and Catherine Barcel "Barcy" Whitson (I).

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 27-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 97.5¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Safe RR+27.04 in 2020.Market · Safe RR 97.5¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 97.5¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+27.04

Hagerty, Bill (R)

62.2 — 35.16 · 2020 general election

def. Bradshaw, Marquita (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Bill Hagerty$7.16M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-17 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.