Tennessee 1st District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Joshua Ray Ashburn (I), Richard G. Baker (I), Chris Campbell (I), Billy Cody (I) and Tyler Brice Mitchell McClain (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 59-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe RR 98¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+58.69 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 98¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+58.69
Diana Harshbarger (R)
78.08 — 19.39 · 2024 general election
def. Kevin Jenkins (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
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PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-17 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.