Anna Paulina Luna · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Luna is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Luna at 75¢ against Gray's 27¢, up 1¢ since July 31. The polling average has Luna ahead by 2 points, and Luna leads 2.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Luna · Republican contract

75.0¢

▲ 1.0¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Anna Paulina Luna by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 84¢ · low 65¢Oct 12

Anna Paulina LunaRepublican · incumbent

75.0¢

Leela GrayDemocratic

27.0¢

32,196 traded · 25,432 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Luna v Gray

Metric by metric

Luna

Gray

75.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

27.0¢

$3.23M

RaisedFEC, through July 29

$1.22M

$1.47M

Cash on handFEC, through July 29

$683.3K

46%

Latest pollHart Research, D sponsor · Aug 27

51%

U.S. Representativesince 2023

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Florida 13th District

Polling average

R+2

Average of 3 pollsters, May 20 to August 27.

Prior result

R+9.7

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Anna Paulina Luna.

Fundraising

2.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+11.9 → R+13.3

Florida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +11.9 to Trump +13.3 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗